ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the discriminative ability and the calibration of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with Pulmonary Embolism (PE) secondary to COVID 19 in two hospitals in Bogotá. METHODS: External validation study of a prediction model based on a retrospective cohort of patients with PE secondary to COVID-19 treated at Hospital Universitario San Ignacio and Hospital universitario La Samaritana, between March 2020 and August 2021. Calibration of the scale was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration belt diagram. Discrimination ability was evaluated using a ROC curve. RESULTS: 272 patients were included (median age 61.5 years, male 58.8%). PE was diagnosed in 45.6% of the patients at the time of admission. Of the remaining 54.4%, 95.9% received thromboprophylaxis until the time of diagnosis.17.6% of the patients died. Regarding calibration, the scale systematically underestimates risk in all classes of PESI. For class I, the ratio of observed/expected events was 4.4 vs 0.8%, class II 4.8 vs 1.8%, class III 15.2 vs 4.2%, class IV 14.3 vs 5.9% and class V 46.7 vs 5.8%. The calibration test rejected the adequate calibration hypothesis (p < 0.001). The discriminatory ability was adequate (AUC = 0.7128, 95% CI 0.63-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: The PESI scale in patients with PE secondary to COVID 19 underestimates the risk of in-hospital mortality, while maintaining adequate discrimination. It is suggested not to use the PESI scale until it is recalibrated in this context.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pulmonary Embolism , Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus , Venous Thromboembolism , Anticoagulants , COVID-19/complications , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Pulmonary Embolism/diagnosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Venous Thromboembolism/complicationsABSTRACT
Introducción estudios recientes han reportado fenómenos trombóticos o coagulopatía en pacientes con COVID-19. Hay posiciones divergentes en cuanto a la prevención, el diagnóstico y el tratamiento de estos fenómenos, y la práctica clínica actual está basada únicamente en deducciones por extensión a partir de estudios retrospectivos, series de casos, estudios observacionales y guías internacionales desarrolladas previas a la pandemia. Objetivo establecer una serie de recomendaciones sobre prevención, diagnóstico y manejo de las complicaciones trombóticas asociadas a COVID-19. Métodos se desarrolló una guía rápida en la que se aplicó el marco de la evidencia a la decisión (EtD) de GRADE y un sistema de participación iterativo, con análisis estadísticos y cualitativos de sus resultados. Resultados se generaron 31 recomendaciones clínicas enfocadas a: a) Pruebas de coagulación en adultos sintomáticos con sospecha de infección o infección confirmada por SARS-CoV-2; b) Tromboprofilaxis en personas adultas con diagnóstico de COVID-19 (escalas de riesgo, tromboprofilaxis de manejo ambulatorio, intrahospitalario y duración de tromboprofilaxis después del egreso de hospitalización), c) Diagnóstico y tratamiento de las complicaciones trombóticas y d) Manejo de personas con indicación previa a usar agentes anticoagulantes. Conclusiones las recomendaciones clínicas de este consenso orientan la toma de decisiones clínicas respecto a prevención, diagnóstico y tratamiento de fenómenos trombóticos en pacientes con COVID-19, y representan un acuerdo que ayudará a disminuir la dispersión en las prácticas clínicas acorde con el desafío que impone la pandemia.
Abstract Introduction: recent studies have reported the occurrence of thrombotic phenomena or coagulopathy in patients with COVID-19. There are divergent positions regarding the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of these phenomena, and current clinical practice is based solely on deductions by extension from retrospective studies, case series, observational studies, and international guidelines developed prior to the pandemic. Objective: to generate a group of recommendations on the prevention, diagnosis and management of thrombotic complications associated with COVID-19. Methods: a rapid guidance was carried out applying the GRADE Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks and an iterative participation system, with statistical and qualitative analysis. Results: 31 clinical recommendations were generated focused on: a) Coagulation tests in symptomatic adults with suspected infection or confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection; b) Thromboprophylaxis in adults diagnosed with COVID-19 (Risk scales, thromboprophylaxis for outpatient, in-hospital management, and duration of thromboprophylaxis after discharge from hospitalization), c) Diagnosis and treatment of thrombotic complications, and d) Management of people with previous indication of anticoagulant agents. Conclusions: recommendations of this consensus guide clinical decision-making regarding the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of thrombotic phenomena in patients with COVID-19, and represent an agreement that will help decrease the dispersion in clinical practices according to the challenge imposed by the pandemic.